In brief: Advancing Operational Earthquake Forecasting as a key element of dynamic risk assessment is achieved through a range of coordinated activities. Using community accepted retrospective and fully prospective testing as tools for performance evaluation, WP3 will have a measurable impact on advancing the state-of-the-art and state of practical OEF implementation in Europe and worldwide. Focus areas are:
- Improving process understanding: By conducting targeted experiments, we will contribute to advancing high-quality earthquake predictability research. This includes a multi-parameter search for precursory signals and operationalising ambient noise time-series analysis.
- Transfer knowledge from other disciplines to OEF, such as rock-deformation labs, underground labs, induced seismic sequences, and adopt novel statistical methods from ecology that combines geological, tectonic and seismic data for developing innovative spatio-temporal triggering models, with full quantification of uncertainty in a Bayesian framework.
- Develop next generation of physics-based earthquake forecasting models and techniques; this includes models mostly based on continuum mechanics and on statistical physics (e.g., network theory) which may benefit from the availability of high-quality seismic data.
- Develop next generation of stochastic and hybrid earthquake forecasting models; improve description of spacetime variability in the frequency-magnitude distribution and earthquake clustering properties, exploiting advances in observational capabilities.
- Develop workflows to formally integrate expert-based OEF assessments into dynamic risk assessment.
Participants: ETH Zürich, GFZ, IMO, UNIBO, UNIVBRIS, UEDIN, BIU, UGA, BOUN, UKRI
Contact: Prof. Warner Marzocchi