In brief: Advancing Operational
Earthquake Forecasting as a key element of dynamic risk
assessment is achieved through a range of coordinated
activities. Using community accepted retrospective and
fully prospective testing as tools for performance
evaluation, WP3 will have a measurable impact on
advancing the state-of-the-art and state of practical
OEF implementation in Europe and worldwide. Focus areas
are:
-
Improving process understanding: By conducting
targeted experiments, we will contribute to advancing
high-quality earthquake predictability research. This
includes a multi-parameter search for precursory
signals and operationalising ambient noise time-series
analysis.
-
Transfer knowledge from other disciplines to OEF, such
as rock-deformation labs, underground labs, induced
seismic sequences, and adopt novel statistical methods
from ecology that combines geological, tectonic and
seismic data for developing innovative spatio-temporal
triggering models, with full quantification of
uncertainty in a Bayesian framework.
-
Develop next generation of physics-based earthquake
forecasting models and techniques; this includes
models mostly based on continuum mechanics and on
statistical physics (e.g., network theory) which may
benefit from the availability of high-quality seismic
data.
-
Develop next generation of stochastic and hybrid
earthquake forecasting models; improve description of
spacetime variability in the frequency-magnitude
distribution and earthquake clustering properties,
exploiting advances in observational capabilities.
-
Develop workflows to formally integrate expert-based
OEF assessments into dynamic risk assessment.
Lead: INGV
Participants: ETH Zürich, GFZ, IMO,
UNIBO, UNIVBRIS, UEDIN, BIU, UGA, BOUN, UKRI
Contact: Prof. Warner Marzocchi